As President Bola Tinubu marked his second year in office with a message of optimism and economic recovery, a new Afrobarometer survey reveals a disturbing reality at odds with the administration’s narrative. For millions of Nigerians, the daily fear of crime and abduction has become a defining part of life, reducing trust and casting a shadow over presidential claims that the nation’s worst days are behind it, Ere-ebi Agedah writes.
As Nigeria continues to pride itself as the giant of Africa and the West African region, its enduring security issues raise concerns about stability, governance, and its ability to lead the sub-region effectively. Two years into President Bola Tinubu’s leadership, insecurity remains a pressing challenge in Nigeria and across West Africa.
Giant of Africa battling internal security crisis
The Lake Chad region of Nigeria remains a stronghold of Boko Haram and ISWAP terrorists. The country shares borders with Niger and Chad along the Lake Chad region, both of which are currently under junta-led governments.
The porous borders and limited regional cooperation due to political instability have allowed insurgents to exploit weak security structures and launch cross-border attacks, threatening not only Nigeria’s internal security but also the broader West African sub-region.
In a second-anniversary address, President Tinubu hailed his administration’s economic reforms, stating they were “working and yielding expected results.” Yet, this confidence stands in contrast to the findings of the latest Afrobarometer survey, released on Wednesday in Abuja.
Survey exposes deepening fear and distrust
According to the survey, Nigerians view crime and insecurity as the second-most pressing problem the government must tackle, just behind economic issues.
The survey, conducted by NOIPolls on behalf of Afrobarometer, interviewed 1,600 adult Nigerians across the country. Its revelations are nothing short of alarming: 79% of respondents said abduction or kidnapping is a “serious” or “very serious” problem in the country, with 33% admitting they personally know someone who has been kidnapped in the past five years.
Also captured in the survey findings was the widespread lack of trust in the country’s security forces. A staggering 68% of Nigerians believe that security agencies are performing poorly in handling abduction cases, while only 30% offer them a passing grade, signalling a breakdown in confidence in the institutions tasked with protecting lives.
CEO of NOIPolls, Chike Nwangwu, stated that insecurity has become something that is very topical in everybody’s mind. “People no longer feel safe in their homes or communities. Whether you are in a rural area or an urban one, rich or poor, educated or not, this is a national crisis.”
Nwangwu emphasised that many Nigerians believe crime continues to thrive because the perpetrators often go unpunished.
“There’s a deep lack of confidence in our security apparatus and in the judiciary system. Until that is restored, the people will continue to feel abandoned,” he said.
Furthermore, the Afrobarometer data also disclosed that many Nigerians are thinking beyond just blame. When asked how best to combat the scourge of kidnapping, 31% said the government must prioritise increasing economic opportunities, while 26% called for enhancing the capacity of security agencies. A further 22% advocated for imposing stiffer penalties, including the death sentence, for those found guilty of such crimes.
The security challenge in Nigeria worsened further with the withdrawal of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a move that has affected the region’s unity, weakened collective security frameworks, and joint military actions.
Tinubu at ECOWAS
President Tinubu, who currently serves as ECOWAS Chair, has been criticised for his inability to prevent or reverse these exits. His diplomatic efforts have so far failed to bring the junta-led states back into the fold, raising questions about his leadership and the future of regional integration.
Tinubu’s tenure as ECOWAS Chair, now two years in, has struggled to deliver meaningful outcomes on key security and diplomatic fronts. The persistent insecurity in Nigeria, coupled with growing regional fragmentation, underscores the urgency of revitalising ECOWAS’s mission and re-establishing trust among all member states. Without a unified and strategic approach, West Africa risks becoming increasingly vulnerable to the influence of armed groups and external powers.
Stakeholders call for urgent action at Afrobarometer dialogue
Meanwhile, the NOIPolls high-level stakeholders’ dialogue where the Afrobarometer Round 10 Survey findings on Security and Kidnapping in Nigeria were presented, hosted a panel session with the theme ‘‘Evolving threats and collaborative solutions to counter Nigeria’s insecurity.’’
Discussants unanimously agreed that the statistics provided from the survey mirror the lived experiences of fear and anxiety evident among Nigerians.
Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), Mr Auwal Rafsanjani, emphasised the availability of credible, data-driven evidence showing how Nigerians perceive the state of insecurity in the country. He said this data should serve as a wake-up call to the government and security agencies to reassess their approach to tackling kidnapping, terrorism, and other forms of criminality.
Rafsanjani pointed out that Nigerians feel increasingly unsafe, and the government must urgently restore public confidence in its ability to protect lives and property. He stressed the need to address the root causes of insecurity, including illiteracy, poverty, and unemployment. He also identified corruption in the security sector as a major stumbling block that must be tackled through comprehensive reforms and improved accountability.
“The security personnel need motivation, training, equipment, and justice,” he said. “Many are not promoted or paid their entitlements, which weakens their morale. Patriotism cannot thrive under such conditions.”
He called for urgent reforms in the security architecture, improved welfare for security operatives, and the establishment of community-based early warning and response systems to enable proactive security measures.
Responding to a question about institutional failures, Rafsanjani urged collaboration among stakeholders, emphasising that securing Nigeria is not about credit or competition but about saving lives. He concluded by calling on President Tinubu to issue a strong directive for security reforms and ensure that justice is served without favouritism, saying, “Anyone who commits a crime must face the law, no godfathers, no exceptions.”
Also, Senior Programme Officer at CLEEN Foundation, Ebere Mbaegbu, emphasised that the insecurity crisis in Nigeria cannot be solved in isolation and urged the government to act on the latest data-driven insights shared during the Afrobarometer survey dissemination.
Representing CLEEN Foundation, which promotes public safety, security, and justice through empirical research and advocacy, Mbaegbu said the forum provided an important platform for examining public perceptions of safety. He noted that the survey data presented by NOIPolls clearly captured how Nigerians feel about their security situation and the performance of security agencies.
“One major driver of insecurity that stood out is the unchecked proliferation of small arms and light weapons, made possible by our porous borders,” he said. “We don’t yet have a fully functioning centre for the control of these weapons, and that’s dangerous for national security.”
Mbaegbu pointed out that while a standard operating procedure exists to address the issue, the roles of stakeholders remain unclear or unfulfilled. He said border communities, especially in the north, lack adequate personnel, with many officers abandoning posts due to safety concerns. This, he argued, leaves wide corridors for smugglers of arms, drugs, and other illegal contraband.
He warned that this unregulated flow has contributed to not just insecurity, but also food shortages, human displacement, and environmental degradation. “This is a national crisis,” he said. “And the government must stop politicising it. Every Nigerian, men, women, youths, and leaders, deserves to be part of the solution. But the key question remains: is the government ready to work with us?”
Call to action
The issue of security is no longer confined to certain states or conflict zones; it has become a national concern. The survey reflects a shared sentiment of unease from Lagos to Maiduguri, from Yenagoa to Kano.
Afrobarometer, a pan-African, non-partisan research organisation, has been tracking citizens’ views on governance and quality of life since 1999. Its Round 10 survey in Nigeria, conducted between 19 June and 17 July 2024, paints a stark picture of a country grappling with persistent insecurity despite federal assurances.
While Tinubu’s second-year address focused heavily on fiscal reforms, fuel subsidy removal, and investment inflows, the average Nigerian is more concerned about surviving the next day without falling victim to criminals. Many believe the economic hardship itself is fuelling criminal activity, as idle hands and frustrated youths become easy recruits for criminal networks.
This is why the call from the people, as reflected in the survey, is twofold: strengthen security institutions and provide economic lifelines. Anything short of that will likely deepen the despair and distrust that now pervade the land.
