By Enyichukwu Enemanna
The latest tensions in Iran, sparked by exchange of missiles and drones with Israel, which has since pitted Washington and Jerusalem on one side and Tehran on the other side, has again resonated the old question, “will there ever be peace in the Middle East?”. Decades of state-level treaties and regional initiatives aimed primarily at resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict have produced minimal results. The Camp David Accords of 1978, the Madrid Conference of 1991, Oslo Accords of 1993/1995 and most recently, the The Abraham Accords of 2020 are some of the efforts aimed at institutionalising peace in the region.
The Saturday, February 28 violence that has led to the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his wife and top military brass and over 1,300 others, including 181 children has not come without economic and political consequences in regions like Africa where most economies are oil-dependent, with several others relying heavily on imported fuel. While the initial stage of the conflict has seen an increase in prices of oil at the international market, the question remains, how sustainable is this? As the missiles and drones keep flying, with the airspace shut, thousands of Africans have been caught in the middle of the exchanges, which have birthed plethora of socio-economic uncertainties back home.
Disruption of Global Trade
War across the universe comes with heavy costs, long-term losses and ruins. The US-Israel war with Iran has changed the way the Middle East and the African continent trade. The imminent increase in shipping costs, which leave the consumer with additional burden is the consequence of ships diversion from the Suez Canal to the longer route around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. Strait of Hormuz, considered as one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoint has witnessed a dramatic drop, nearly 90% following the intensifying conflict.
Iran had in response to joint military strikes by the United States and Israel announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz a development currently reshaping the global maritime trade in a way not envisaged. Following the escalations also, the UK Maritime Trade Operations raised the security threat level for ships operating in the region to “critical” point. As a result, maritime insurers immediately announced the withdrawal of war-risk coverage for vessels operating near the corridor, which has left many shipping operators unwilling to risk transiting the volatile area.
Nigeria particularly as an influential player in the oil industry had so much to lose because the conflict arrived just as the industry had appeared to stabilise and just days before two leading ship companies CMA CGM had announced plans to resume full Suez Canal operations in the second quarter of 2026. This on its own was a recovery from the 2023–2025 Red Sea disruptions caused by Iran-backed Houthi attacks on shipping.
Airlines in Huge Financial Loss
African-owned airlines have braced for huge losses in revenue arising from the escalation. The major flight cancellations and rescheduling, as a result of airspace closures in Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain have had a major impact on the African region.
EgyptAir, the Egyptian national carrier, is one of the hardest hit by the aviation crisis sparked by the Israeli-US offensive. Cairo, Africa’s busiest airport with 30.9 million passengers in 2025, handles EgyptAir’s massive flows to the Gulf. At the moment, flights to 11 regional destinations, including Beirut, Baghdad and Bahrain, are facing uncertainty.
The Egyptian flag carrier has justified an indefinite suspension by citing “the military escalation and its direct impact on regional air navigation”. A mechanism has been put in place to assist passengers with rerouting, rescheduling or full refunds where necessary. Although its links to conflict zones are suspended, Egyptian airspace remains open. According to aviation authorities, airports in the country have received about 30 diverted flights following neighbouring airspace closures.
Also, the Ethiopian Airlines, which provides connections to Amman, Tel Aviv, Dammam and Beirut, announced that “due to the security situation in the Middle East, it was cancelling certain flights to and from the region”, halting several rotations while emphasising real-time monitoring of events to guarantee passenger and crew safety. It has reported a $137 million loss in one week, after suspending over 100 flights to 10 Middle Eastern destinations.
In the Maghreb, Royal Air Maroc has reduced flights to the Middle East, with cancellations and aircraft turnarounds due to airspace closures, severely disrupting traffic between Casablanca and Gulf hubs, essential transit points for sub-Saharan Africa. Air Algérie has followed suit, suspending flights to key destinations such as Jordan, the UAE and Qatar, explaining the decision resulted from “the effective closure of several airspaces in the region for security reasons”.
Rise in Terrorism and Arms Proliferation
The security implications of the crisis cannot be dismissed especially as the African continent bears the brunt of activities of terror organisations, including Islamic State and Al-Qaeda who have ideological or operational links with Middle East. They have widened their bases into Africa through affiliates like Boko Haram and Al‑Shabaab.
Security experts have expressed concern that the expansion of extremist network can be accelerated through recruitment, propaganda, and funding for armed groups in regions such as the Sahel, Lake Chad Basin, and the Horn of Africa. Also, the sustained pressure from US and Israel could displace fighters from their Middle East original habitat to Africa, strengthening insurgency.
Historically, wars in the Middle East often lead to the illegal circulation of weapons across international markets. Small arms and light weapons from conflict zones may find their way into African regions where insecurity has been exacerbated by easy access to “killing machines”. These weapons can intensify conflicts in fragile regions such as Libya, the Sahel, and the Lake Chad Basin, where arms trafficking networks is already in place.
Any End in Sight?
The White House has predicted four to six weeks for the war to last, with Trump putting no specific timeline on his war. Against Tehran’s position, he has insisted that Washington must have a say on who replaces the slain supreme leader, dismissing the appointment of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei as the nation’s new supreme leader, calling him a “lightweight”.
With Tehran’s stand that it would not not allow foreign interference in the control of its political machinery, end to the war in wrapped in uncertainty. Until the warring parties come together in a table of dialogue, Africa and indeed other parts of the world will be at the receiving end of the escalations.
