By John Ikani
Tigray, in Ethiopia, is now one of the World’s most isolated regions.
A brutal war which began in 2020 has seen tens of thousands killed in the North Ethiopian state, home to around seven million people.
What sparked the war?
Fighting broke out between government troops and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which dominated Ethiopia for decades and now controls most of Tigray.
Power struggle, an election and a push for political reform are among several factors that led to the crisis.
In 2020, officials in Tigray defied Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government by going ahead with voting despite a national election being cancelled due to Covid.
Reacting to the defiance, the Ethiopian government cut federal funding to the region, which the TPLF said was “tantamount to an act of war.” In retaliation, Tigray forces attacked a military base.
Ethiopia’s government responded by sending troops into Tigray and a civil war erupted. Neighbouring Eritrea joined the fighting, carrying out attacks on Tigray, a development which made the war spread to the Amhara and Afar regions.
How are people being affected?
Some estimates say over 150,000 people have died from starvation. Those who can afford food are surviving on one meal a day.
Services like telecommunications and banking have become non-existent while over 2.5 million people have fled their homes.
Both government and Tigray forces have been accused of war crimes, including attacks on civilians. Sexual violence has become a weapon of war with widespread reports of children and mothers being raped.
In addition, Ethiopia has been accused of weaponizing hunger by obstructing the delivery of food and basic services to Tigray, a move which the United Nations (UN) describes as a crime against humanity.
The UN has also warned that civilians risk suffering more crimes as long as the war in the region continues.
A truce and resumption of hostilities
Ethiopia declared an indefinite humanitarian truce in March 2022 for the first time since the war started to help hasten the delivery of emergency aid to Tigray.
Fighting in Tigray renewed in August following months of relative calm as both sides accused the other of firing first and breaking the March truce. The war has raged on ever since.
Is there an end in sight for the conflict?
Despite the resurgence of violence in the Tigray region, there are hopes that peace might be restored. Here’s why.
The African Union (AU) invitation for peace talks has received positive responses from both warring parties – the federal government and the Tigrayan forces.
On one hand, Addis Ababa said the invitation was ‘consistent with its prior positions.’ On the other hand, Tigrayan forces said they were ready to send a team to South Africa where the talks are scheduled to take place.
The talks – which is still being prepared for by the AU, – would be the first formal negotiations between the two sides since the start of the conflict in 2020.
However, there are still a number of challenges that can spoil peace efforts.
What are the challenges?
Following five months of relative peace, fighting resumed on multiple fronts in August.
Tigrayan forces managed to push southwards controlling Kobo town in neighbouring Amhara which they have now left.
In the West, the federal army and its local allies gained some areas. In the East, there has been fighting along Tigray’s borders with neighbouring Afar.
Finally in the North, an operation by the Ethiopian federal government which is reportedly supported by neighbouring Eritrea, led to the capture of a Tigrayan town Shiraro.
Hope springs eternal
The proposed talks are the very first steps to putting an end to these brutalities.
One of the previous thorny issues was the question of who should lead peace efforts. Tigrayan forces had earlier rejected the AU as a mediator.
But in September, they accepted the talks under the auspices of the continental organisation, thus removing one of the hurdles for a peace settlement.
Pressing diplomatic issues
The most pressing issue, undoubtedly, is resuming the much-needed humanitarian aid into Tigray, where millions are in desperate need.
Another pressing issue is the Tigrayan force’s demand for a restoration of basic services in the region, and the return of disputed areas that are currently under the control of the Amhara region.
The latter would likely be a complicated issue to resolve.
Meanwhile, the involvement of neighbouring Eritrea in the conflict is seen by many as another huge impediment to any peace effort.
Eritrea which has a long-standing feud with Tigrayan leaders fought alongside the Ethiopian army in the initial phases of the war, and there are reports of its active involvement in the latest fighting as well.
Asmara hasn’t reacted to the latest peace efforts, and it’s not clear how it will respond in the future, particularly if progress are made.
Verdict
The reality is, despite the much-needed glimmer of hope for peace in Ethiopia, the road to lasting peace would be a very long walk.
