Africa’s two leading oil producers, Nigeria and Angola, are set to drive the continent’s crude output to 3.39 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2025.
This increase forms part of a broader push to enhance production by over 500,000 bpd within the year.
The African Energy Chamber’s (AEC) 2025 State of African Energy Outlook reports that West Africa will spearhead this growth, increasing the region’s oil output from 6.5 million bpd to nearly 7 million bpd over the next two years.
“West Africa continues to remain the major driver of oil supply, producing around 3.7 million bpd of oil currently. With sustained production from Angola and a recovery from Nigeria, the region could produce between 3.8–3.9 million bpd,” the report highlighted.
Global Impact of Africa’s Oil Expansion
Africa is set to contribute roughly 8 per cent of the world’s crude and condensate supply by 2025. Analysts attribute the steady increase in production to improving security and stability in key oil-producing nations.
According to the AEC, “The gradual increase hinges majorly on the curtailment of pipeline vandalism and oil theft in Nigeria, and a more stable environment in Sudan, which also affects South Sudan’s production.”
Nigeria’s Record Output in 2024
After years of challenges, Nigeria has regained momentum in crude production, reaching its highest level in four years. Bloomberg data revealed that the country’s output climbed to 1.51 million bpd in December 2024, exceeding the OPEC quota and marking a 40,000 bpd increase from the previous month.
Having struggled to maintain production levels as low as 1.3 million bpd in 2023, Nigeria now targets a 2025 daily production rate of 2.06 million barrels, factoring in both crude and condensates.
Security Measures Drive Production Gains
Nigeria’s success in boosting oil production relies heavily on addressing oil theft and vandalism, which have plagued the sector for years. Enhanced security measures, such as Operation Delta Safe, are credited with reducing these losses.
In 2022, oil theft drained the country of $23 million daily, with losses hitting $1.43 billion in March 2023 alone, according to Senate estimates. By October 2024, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) reported production reaching 1.8 million bpd, attributing the milestone to strengthened security operations.
Shell’s $5 Billion Bet on Nigeria
A major investment from Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo) is expected to sustain and expand the country’s oil output. The company recently announced a $5 billion commitment to the Bonga North deep-water project, located off Nigeria’s coast.
The project includes drilling 16 wells, deploying advanced subsea equipment, and modifying the existing Bonga Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) facility. Once completed, Bonga North is projected to produce 110,000 barrels daily, with first oil anticipated by the decade’s end.
Sector Reforms Spark Optimism
Reforms in Nigeria’s oil sector are helping to restore investor confidence. Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, emphasised that improvements have streamlined operations and eliminated barriers for stakeholders.
“We have also eliminated bureaucratic bottlenecks in licensing, facilitated capacity building for Indigenous players, and introduced numerous reforms too extensive to list,” Lokpobiri said.
Reflecting on the progress, he added, “The strides we’ve made are undeniable. From where we started to where we are now, the future promises even greater growth and development for the benefit of Nigerians.”
