By Ebi Kesiena
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has warned that the country could face significant economic losses and job cuts if it is excluded from a United States trade programme that provides preferential market access to eligible African countries.
The warning comes amid worsening diplomatic relations between Pretoria and Washington and growing uncertainty over South Africa’s continued eligibility for the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
AGOA allows qualifying African countries to export a range of products to the US market duty-free. The programme has been extended by the US Congress until the end of 2028, but the renewal is still awaiting the signature of US President Donald Trump.
South Africa is the largest beneficiary of the programme and could suffer substantial economic consequences if its access is withdrawn.
Ramaphosa has therefore urged the government and businesses to accelerate efforts to identify alternative export markets in case South Africa loses its preferential access to the US.
He, however, appealed to South Africans not to panic, saying the government was assessing possible measures to limit the impact of any decision by Washington.
The automotive industry is among the sectors considered most vulnerable to a possible withdrawal of AGOA benefits because South African vehicles currently enter the US market duty-free.
Industry estimates suggest that about 86,000 jobs at vehicle manufacturers are directly associated with the trade arrangement. The number rises to approximately 125,000 when jobs linked to subcontractors are included.
The potential impact extends beyond the automotive sector, with other South African exporters also relying on preferential access to the US market.
The uncertainty has heightened concerns among businesses and policymakers, particularly as South Africa seeks to protect its export earnings and sustain employment amid broader economic pressures.
Any decision to terminate South Africa’s participation in the programme from January 1 would reportedly have to be announced by November 2.
The approaching deadline has increased pressure on Pretoria to intensify diplomatic engagement with Washington while simultaneously preparing contingency measures.
Ramaphosa’s warning underscores the importance of diversifying South Africa’s export markets as the country seeks to reduce its vulnerability to changes in US trade policy.
The government is expected to continue discussions with American authorities while exploring opportunities in other international markets to cushion businesses, workers and the wider economy against any potential loss of AGOA benefits.
