By Enyichukwu Enemanna
Analysts have expressed mixed feelings on what Africa stands to benefit from America with the inauguration of Donald Trump for a second term in office as the 47th President of the United States. This is anchored on the fact that during the campaigns, Africa was not of paramount priority to the 78-year-old 45th President, who lost his bid for a consecutive second term to Joe Biden, who later became his (Trump’s) successor and predecessor.
They have given diverse interpretations of what could become of US foreign policy and the relations between Africa and the US in the next four years of Trump’s presidency, pointing to controversial Executive Orders being signed by the President, many of which have far-reaching negative impacts on Africa. Orders targeting migrants, the withdrawal of automatic citizenship to persons born or naturalized in the US, the termination of funding support for the World Health Organization (WHO), and several others described as “reckless” even by US citizens are seen as antagonistic to Africa and the developing world in general.
A prominent Nigerian diplomat, former Minister of Foreign Affairs and one-time Director-General of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Prof. Bolaji Akinyemi, urged his country and Africa not to be too expectant of Washington’s potential, as Trump’s inaugural speech was “uninspiring, shocking, and depressing.”
In an interview with the private TV station Channels, he accused Trump of audaciously threatening the rest of the world with a bouquet of hostile policies instead of rallying the world for peace. He criticized the policy proposal of taking back the Panama Canal, built by America but ceded to Panama decades ago, renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America, tariff wars with trade partners, among others. “The world is in for a rough ride for four years of the Trump presidency,” he said, as he advised Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu to avoid confrontation with the real estate tycoon-turned-politician.
On the other hand, pundits have also expressed hope that Africa has much to gain, given a number of initiatives Trump rolled out during his first term in office. But irrespective of what the case may be, the policies of the US under Trump are expected to shape Africa’s engagement with Washington in familiar and uncertain ways — immigration, health, economy, and other sectors.
Trump’s First Tenure
During his first term (2017–2021), the Trump administration’s signature initiative, Prosper Africa, was designed to assist US companies seeking to do business in Africa. It was supported by the bipartisan Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development (BUILD) Act, which established the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to replace and augment the capabilities of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC). Among other things, BUILD doubled the limit on investments from $29 billion under OPIC to $60 billion under DFC. Though neither was specific to a region, sub-Saharan Africa represented the largest share of OPIC’s portfolio.
The administration also advanced the cause of democracy in the Democratic Republic of Congo by supporting the easing out of strongman Joseph Kabila in early 2019. It also backed initiatives to end the civil war in Cameroon and support Sudan’s fledgling democracy following the overthrow of dictator Omar al-Bashir, though the African country later fell into crisis, which it still grapples with to date.
In late 2018, First Lady Melania Trump made goodwill visits to four African countries, focusing on maternal and newborn hospital care and education, as well as her anti-bullying campaign.
Also, during his first term, Trump recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the territory of Western Sahara in 2020, making the country a decisive player in the Abraham Accords signed on 22 December 2020 at the instance of the US. In exchange for Morocco’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty, the United States recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.
Trump has also been praised for lifting the embargo on the sale of weapons to Nigeria during his first term in office. The US government under Obama refused to sell arms to Nigeria to fight Boko Haram terrorists, citing human rights abuses by the Nigerian army. This prompted complaints from former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan and his successor Muhammadu Buhari.
Jonathan had said the US refusal to sell arms made fighting the war against Boko Haram “very difficult,” while Buhari remarked that the decision had aided the terrorist group. But all that changed when Trump, in 2018, agreed to sell arms and fighter jets to Nigeria to fight the deadly Boko Haram terror organization. “We’re getting them approved,” Trump told former President Buhari when they met that year. “Part of the problem is you weren’t allowed to buy helicopters in our country, and now you are; I worked that out.”
Despite these actions, Trump was accused of pursuing an isolationist strategy and an “America First” foreign policy, which led him to advocate for Congress to reduce development programs, many of which are domiciled in Africa. Also, while his appointees, including Mike Pompeo, First Lady Melania, and his daughter Ivanka, visited several African countries, Trump himself never visited the continent. During his four years in the White House, he only received two Sub-Saharan African heads of state — Nigeria’s Muhammadu Buhari and Kenya’s Uhuru Kenyatta.
His administration was also criticized for not hosting a US-Africa summit, particularly as Russian President Vladimir Putin had spectacularly kicked off a series of Russia-Africa summits, the first of which took place in Sochi in 2019.
“Only Two Genders”
Perhaps one of the Executive Orders signed by Trump that deeply resonates with what many consider as “cultural” to the African people is the recognition of two genders — male and female. He rejected what he calls “radical gender ideology” as part of the larger conservative push against the growing visibility and acceptance of LGBTQ persons in society. “As of today, it will henceforth be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders, male and female,” he declared during his inauguration speech on Monday, 20 January 2025.
The Executive Order titled ‘Defending Women From Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government’ states that “it is the policy of the United States to recognize two sexes, male and female,” and that the term “gender identity” is “disconnected from biological reality and sex.”
A close billionaire ally of the President and South African-born CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon Musk, had also voiced concern over transgender issues following the “loss” of his 20-year-old son, who was later identified as Vivian Jenna Wilson. Musk has, for years, criticized transgender rights, including medical treatments for trans-identifying minors and the use of pronouns different from those assigned at birth. He has promoted anti-trans content on his X platform and called for the arrest of people who provide trans care to minors. “I lost my son, essentially,” Musk said in an interview. He stated that Wilson was “dead, killed by the woke mind virus,” referring to LGBTQ issues.
Most African countries have taken a firm stand against LGBTQ individuals and those who identify as lesbians and homosexuals. In Uganda, where President Yoweri Museveni signed what is considered tough legislation prescribing the death penalty in certain circumstances, the US government under immediate past President Joe Biden excluded the East African country from preferential trade treatment under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Under Trump, Uganda may likely find a more sympathetic ear. Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria, and their neighbors have unapologetically enacted legislation discouraging same-sex unions.
Uncertainty Over Climate and Health Financing
The US exit from the Paris Climate Agreement will be a huge setback for Africa and threaten gains made towards enhancing the ability of countries to adapt to climate change. The Paris Agreement, signed in France in 2015, seeks to limit global temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and provides financial support to developing nations, which are among the lowest emitters, for mitigation and adaptation efforts.
This is not the first time Trump has led the US out of the agreement signed by nearly 200 countries of the world a decade ago, except Iran, Libya, and Yemen. During his first term in 2017, Trump pulled the country out of the agreement, stating that the pact would “undermine” the US economy and put the country “at a permanent disadvantage.” The decision was, however, reversed in 2021 when Joe Biden came into power.
Africa is paying heavily for climate adaptation despite contributing relatively little to climate change—just about 3-4% of global emissions. Ironically, the US is historically the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. According to the Global Carbon Project, the US has been responsible for nearly 22% of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since 1950. Its withdrawal could reduce global momentum towards stronger climate action and embolden other nations to scale back their commitments and climate policies. Moreover, the Biden administration’s commitment in December 2024 to cut emissions by 61 to 66 percent by 2035 will also suffer a fatal blow.
To bridge the existing massive climate-finance gap, during the UN Conference of Parties (COP29) in Azerbaijan last year, developed countries pledged to commit $300 billion to aid developing nations in adapting to the impact of climate change. This was considered grossly inadequate compared to the $1.3 trillion proposed by developing countries. However, the sudden exit of the US from the Paris Agreement could jeopardize the amount that may be available to African nations. On the other hand, Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” comment, expanding the fossil fuel industry and putting green energy efforts in the background, appears to favor the African continent, which relies heavily on oil proceeds to run its governments.
Also, the US withdrawal from WHO is viewed as a significant setback for Africa, which depends heavily on the support of the UN body to contain endemic diseases and respond adequately to emergencies on the continent. Diseases such as cholera, meningitis, Ebola, measles, yellow fever, m-pox, Zika, Rift Valley fever, COVID-19, and several others have been tackled through funding and technical support from WHO.
Africa Centre for Disease Control (CDC) senior official Ngashi Ngongo, in response, said many countries had been relying on US investment via the WHO to fund public health drives. “We know the role that the WHO has played on the continent… to really improve the delivery of health programs,” Ngongo told a media briefing. “The reduction or the cutting of (US) funding is definitely going to affect the response. It is time for some of the African member states to rethink the financing of public health.”
Zimbabwe’s finance minister, Mthuli Ncube, has also expressed concern that the US withdrawal could signal cuts in health aid to countries such as his, which are most affected by HIV/AIDS.
African Home-Made Solutions
The African continent has long sought enhanced trade and economic relations, development aid, security partnerships, diplomatic relations, industrialization, and technology transfer – with the West and the US at the forefront. Though these partnerships and collaborations are essential to the development of the continent, Africa has the potential to survive with little or no foreign aid. Several African countries are rich in resources and human capital, which, if properly harnessed, could curb the need to run cap-in-hand for external support.
The Sahel and the Horn of Africa, which have witnessed large-scale insecurity, for instance, can achieve durable peace, inclusive development, security, and stability through effective international cooperation and support for “African solutions to African problems.” Irrespective of reservations that some may have, the security cooperations among the junta-led Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali could serve as a template for what Africa could achieve with the right synergy.
Addressing the UN Security Council on the implementation strategy for the African Union’s “Silencing the Guns” initiative in 2023, Mohamed Ibn Chambas, African Union High Representative for Silencing the Guns, emphasized the need for Africa to embark on a people-centered recovery and transformation, prioritizing investment in areas such as education, science, technology, innovation, health, decent employment opportunities, gender equality, and youth empowerment. Noting that abundant financial resources are required for such transformation, he called for the mobilization of domestic resources, with a particular emphasis on fighting illicit financial flows, which deprive Africa of approximately $90 billion annually. He further underlined the importance of developing sustainable industrialization to leverage Africa’s agricultural and natural-resource potential, creating a “Made in Africa” standard, and promoting the African Continental Free Trade Area.
Though Trump has been described as “unpredictable,” there is clearly nothing to indicate that Africa is on his foreign policy priority list, especially with the actions taken so far, including the suspension of foreign aid for 90 days, such as the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). The decision to halt PEPFAR, which has saved millions of lives across the world since its launch by former President George W. Bush in 2003, could be devastating to Africa’s HIV/AIDS programs.
During his first term in office, the US leader also referred to Africa in derogatory terms, which strained relations between Washington and the African Union (AU). In the words of Prof. Akinyemi, it is difficult to predict what the future holds for the continent under Trump’s presidency. Africa can leverage its internal strength for home-grown solutions to its security and economic challenges and depend less on foreign powers that view the 1.5 billion population as “beggarly” and “parasitic.”
