By John Ikani
A new study led by the British University of Leeds predicts a potential silver lining for malaria control in Africa.
Their research, published in the journal Science on May 9th, titled “Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology,” suggests that hotter and drier conditions brought on by climate change may lead to a decrease in areas suitable for malaria transmission starting from 2025.
However, the news is not all positive. The decrease in malaria-friendly areas may come at the cost of reduced water availability.
In addition, Professor Simon Gosling, a co-author of the study and an expert in Climate Risks & Environmental Modelling, warns of a potential rise in dengue fever, another mosquito-borne disease.
The research team points out that previous assessments of malaria risk across Africa “tended to solely represent surface water using precipitation.”
Their novel approach involved using “a weighted ensemble of global hydrological and climate models” to create a more nuanced picture of present and future areas where climate and water conditions are suitable for malaria transmission.
The researchers believe that further advancements in their modelling techniques could provide even finer details about waterbody dynamics.
This information could be crucial for informing national strategies to combat malaria.
Malaria remains a significant public health threat, particularly in Africa.
According to the World Health Organization, malaria deaths reached a peak of 608,000 in 2022, with a staggering 95% of those deaths occurring in Africa.
The parasite that causes malaria is primarily transmitted to humans through infected mosquitoes.
While the new study suggests a potential decline in malaria transmission risk due to climate change, the potential rise of dengue fever and reduced water availability highlight the complex challenges Africa faces.
