The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has released a new update projecting a surge in global temperatures to unprecedented levels in the coming years.
The rise will be driven by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event.
According to the report, there is a 66% probability that the yearly average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will surpass pre-industrial levels by at least 1.5°C for one year.
Also, there is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, as well as the entire five-year period, will be the warmest on record.
The report precedes the World Meteorological Congress, scheduled from May 22 to June 2, where discussions will focus on strengthening weather and climate services to support climate change adaptation.
Key topics include the Early Warnings for All initiative, aimed at protecting people from extreme weather events, and the development of a Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Infrastructure to facilitate climate mitigation efforts.
While the forecasts provided are intended as guidance for Regional Climate Centres, Regional Climate Outlook Forums, and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, they do not represent official forecasts for specific regions or nations.
However, these entities are encouraged to interpret and develop value-added forecasts based on the information provided.
In addition to rising temperatures, human-induced greenhouse gases are causing detrimental effects such as increased ocean heating and acidification, melting sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels, and more frequent extreme weather events.
The Paris Agreement establishes long-term goals for nations to significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and limit the increase in global temperature to 2°C, with efforts to further restrict the rise to 1.5°C.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that climate-related risks for natural and human systems are higher at 1.5°C of global warming compared to present conditions, but lower than at 2°C.
The report is part of the World Meteorological Organisation’s suite of climate products and aims to inform policymakers.
The organisation will release its provisional statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2023 during the UN Climate Change Conference, COP28, in December.
While the report does not imply a permanent breach of the 1.5°C level set in the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming trends over several years, the WMO Secretary-General, Prof. Petteri Taalas, emphasizes that temporary exceedances of this threshold will occur more frequently.
With the anticipated El Niño and the combination of climate change, global temperatures are poised to enter uncharted territory.
Taalas highlights the wide-ranging implications for health, food security, water management, and the environment, underscoring the need for preparedness.
