By John Ikani
A fresh study from the Center for Global Development suggests that the development path witnessed in East Asia, revolving around the expansion of manufacturing to alleviate poverty, may not find a counterpart in African nations.
The study indicates that by mid-century, a diminishing share of factory jobs will be the norm for most countries.
The report paints a picture of a world in 2050 with fewer factory workers compared to today, even in countries blessed with abundant and cost-effective labour.
In contrast to the East Asian narrative, the growth of manufacturing jobs is poised to plateau in these regions.
In this landscape, China appears as an exceptional outlier, set to increase its share of global manufacturing output from 30% in 2018 to an impressive 43.8% by 2050.
Nonetheless, the study’s authors contend that China will gradually shift towards higher-value manufacturing sectors, limiting opportunities for other developing nations in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America to replicate the East Asian model of transitioning from agriculture to manufacturing.
The report’s senior fellows, Charles Kenny and Ranil Dissanayake, highlight a notable trend – the leapfrogging of the manufacturing stage in many countries as they leap straight into the services sector.
They anticipate rapid job growth in this sector, primarily driven by technological advancements. This pattern is evident not only in countries like Bangladesh and Ethiopia but could become a global phenomenon.
In the words of Charles Kenny, “There’s a prevailing notion that low-income countries will naturally progress from agriculture-dominated economies to manufacturing-led growth. However, mounting evidence suggests that this may not be the case. We believe that farms are set to depopulate across Africa and Asia in the coming decades, with people more likely to flock to offices and shops rather than factories.”
The study offers a glimpse into global economic dynamics until 2050, modelling shifts in the economies of 59 countries that collectively represent roughly three-quarters of the world’s GDP and population.
Furthermore, the study predicts that even in the world’s most impoverished nations, the number of factory jobs will struggle to keep up with population growth over the next three decades.
Consequently, manufacturing is expected to remain a relatively modest component of these countries’ economies. Across all low-income countries, the study suggests that manufacturing jobs are unlikely to exceed 8% of total employment.
