By John Ikani
Leaders from Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea – nations that have had longstanding tensions with Ethiopia – recently convened in the Eritrean capital, Asmara, sparking speculation about the implications for regional dynamics.
Following the summit, Eritrea issued a statement emphasizing “respect for the sovereignty… and territorial integrity of the countries in the region.” While Ethiopia was not explicitly mentioned, the reference may hint at Ethiopia’s ambition for access to the sea.
A recent diplomatic rift has brought Somalia closer to Egypt and Eritrea, both of whom have had long-running disagreements with Ethiopia. Observers worry that the escalating tensions could lead to a more serious conflict.
“This is an axis against [Ethiopian capital] Addis Ababa,” remarked Hassan Khannenje, the director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies, in an interview with the BBC’s Focus on Africa. “It seems like an effort to align regional opposition and put more pressure on Addis Ababa.”
A photograph released by Eritrea from the meeting showed President Isaias Afwerki holding hands with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
In their statement, the three leaders pledged to “enhance Somali state institutions to tackle internal and external threats, including terrorism in all its forms.”
This was President Sisi’s first visit to Asmara, while Somalia’s president has made multiple visits this year alone.
Ethiopia has long supported Somalia in its fight against the extremist group al-Shabab. However, relations between the two nations have soured since Ethiopia signed a preliminary deal with Somaliland earlier this year, granting access to a portion of the disputed coastline that Somalia claims.
At the same time, Addis Ababa and Cairo have been locked in a long-standing disagreement over Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam on the Nile River. Egypt fears the dam will disrupt its vital water supply.
Tensions between Somalia and Egypt have risen in recent months. Last month, an Egyptian vessel delivered military equipment to Somalia, following two earlier shipments in August from Egyptian military aircraft.
Back in 2018, optimism had grown that Ethiopia and Eritrea were finally putting decades of hostilities behind them. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a “peace and friendship” agreement with Eritrea, an act that earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
However, relations have cooled again following the end of Ethiopia’s civil war in the northern Tigray region, which borders Eritrea. Despite initially siding with Ethiopia during the conflict, Eritrea has shown little enthusiasm for the peace accord signed in November 2022.
Further straining ties, Ethiopia’s pursuit of access to a Red Sea port, announced by Prime Minister Abiy last year, has left Eritrea wary of its neighbor’s growing ambitions.
