By Ebi Kesiena
Nigeria is projected to overtake South Africa as Africa’s largest contributor to global economic growth in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF estimates that Nigeria will account for 1.5 percent of global real GDP growth in 2026, placing it among the world’s top ten contributors and making it the only African country on the list.
In earlier IMF outlooks, South Africa ranked ahead of Nigeria due to its larger nominal economy.
However, Nigeria’s contribution had been constrained over the past two to three years by currency instability, high inflation, and policy uncertainty.
The 2026 forecast signals a shift in Africa’s economic dynamics. Nigeria is regaining momentum following recent reforms, while South Africa continues to struggle with subdued growth, persistent power shortages, and mounting trade pressures.
The IMF projects Nigeria’s real GDP growth at 4.4 percent in 2026, easing slightly to 4.1 percent in 2027. This outlook is attributed to exchange-rate realignment, the removal of fuel subsidies, efforts to stabilise public finances, and strengthening domestic demand.
Despite the improved growth outlook, key domestic indicators, such as inflation, exchange-rate stability, real wages, employment, and purchasing power, remain under strain.
While Nigeria’s projected contribution to global growth reflects progress, significant structural and economic challenges persist.
The IMF cautions that these projections are conditional and subject to revision, and should not be interpreted as a full endorsement of policy success.
Meanwhile, South Africa, Africa’s largest economy by nominal GDP, is expected to grow 1.4 percent in 2026 and 1.5 percent thereafter. Growth remains constrained by electricity shortages, logistical bottlenecks, weak private-sector investment, and high unemployment, all of which continue to weigh on industrial output and consumer demand.
