By John Ikani
Last year witnessed Earth-shattering annual heat records, teetering on the brink of the globally agreed warming threshold and displaying unmistakable signs of a planet in the grip of a fever, said a European climate agency in a report released on Tuesday.
According to Copernicus, the European climate agency, the Earth experienced a warming of 1.48 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times.
The figure falls just short of the 1.5° Celsius limit established in the 2015 Paris climate agreement, a crucial milestone aimed at avoiding the most severe consequences of global warming.
Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, shared a concerning revelation, stating that January 2024 is poised to be so hot that, for the first time, a 12-month period will surpass the 1.5° threshold.
The prediction challenges the conventional belief that Earth would need two to three decades to surpass the 1.5° target, emphasizing the urgency of addressing climate change.
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Burgess stressed the importance of keeping the 1.5° target alive, underscoring the fact that this choice impacts not only the current generation but profoundly affects the lives of our children and grandchildren.
The repercussions of record-breaking heat were evident across the globe, making life unbearable and, in some cases, leading to fatalities in regions like Europe, North America, China, and beyond.
Scientists assert that global warming is also responsible for exacerbating extreme weather events, from prolonged droughts in the Horn of Africa to devastating floods in Libya and wildfires in Canada, affecting air quality across continents.
In a separate press conference, international climatologists, led by Friederike Otto of Imperial College, highlighted the undeniable role of global warming in triggering extreme weather events. Otto emphasized, “Our analysis clearly shows that the hottest year had a significant impact.”
The World Weather Attribution team, focusing on events affecting over 1 million people or causing more than 100 casualties, faced overwhelming challenges in 2023.
With over 160 such events, they managed only 14 studies, revealing that virtually all current heatwaves are intensified and made more likely due to human-induced climate change.
The United States experienced a staggering 28 weather disasters causing at least $1 billion in damage last year, breaking the previous record set in 2020, as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The frequency of such costly disasters has surged, with an average of just three per year in the 1980s and fewer than six per year in the 1990s.
Antarctica’s sea ice hit historic lows in 2023, shattering eight monthly records for low sea ice, according to Copernicus.
With Copernicus calculating the global average temperature for 2023 at about one-sixth of a degree Celsius higher than the previous record in 2016, the Earth’s average temperature stood at 14.98° Celsius.
Burgess noted, “Records were broken for seven months, with June, July, August, September, October, November, and December being exceptionally hot. It’s not just one season or one month; it was exceptional for more than half the year.”
Several factors contributed to 2023 becoming the hottest year on record, with the predominant one being the escalating levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases resulting from the combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas.
Malte Meinshausen, a climatologist at the University of Melbourne, explained that about 1.3 degrees Celsius of warming can be attributed to greenhouse gases, 0.1 degrees Celsius to El Nino, and the rest to various smaller factors.
While Copernicus data goes back to 1940, utilizing a combination of observations and forecast models, other institutions with longer histories, such as NOAA, NASA, the U.K. Meteorological Office, and Berkeley Earth, are set to release their 2023 calculations soon, hoping to confirm the record.
Despite the relatively short observation period, scientists suggest that tree rings and ice cores indicate the warmest climate Earth has experienced in over 100,000 years.
Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus, highlighted the unprecedented nature of the warming, emphasizing, “Our cities, roads, monuments, farms — essentially all human activities — have never had to contend with such a hot climate.”
In a remarkable first, Copernicus recorded two days in 2023 where the planet’s average temperature exceeded that of the pre-industrial era by at least 2° Celsius. Every day of the year surpassed 1° Celsius warmer compared to pre-industrial times, with nearly half the year (173 days) witnessing temperatures 1.5° higher than in the mid-1800s.
While acknowledging public concerns about the 1.5° target, Meinshausen stressed the importance of redoubling efforts to curb warming, drawing an analogy, “We don’t remove a speed limit because someone exceeded it. We are redoubling our efforts to put the brakes on.”
Contrary to this, Buontempo expressed a bleak outlook, stating, “If the current trajectory continues, in a few years, the record year 2023 will probably be remembered as a cold year.
