A dramatic reversal in Africa’s energy trade dynamics has seen South Africa eclipse Nigeria as the continent’s largest petrol importer, according to new industry data.
This shift follows Nigeria’s significant progress in reducing fuel imports through the operationalisation of the massive Dangote Refinery and smaller modular facilities, while South Africa struggles with refinery outages and growing import dependence.
The latest CITAC energy report reveals Nigeria imported just 3.1 million tonnes of refined petroleum products in Q1 2025 – a stark decline from previous years – compared to South Africa’s 4.2 million tonnes during the same period.
This marks a historic transition for Nigeria, which had long topped Africa’s fuel import charts despite being a major crude oil producer, due to decades of refinery underperformance and inefficient subsidy systems.
“The dramatic reduction in Nigerian imports directly correlates with Dangote Refinery coming online,” said CITAC Executive Director Elitsa Georgieva. The $19 billion facility, operating at 550,000 barrels per day since January, now meets about 60% of Nigeria’s petrol demand.
Industry analysts project Nigeria’s total 2025 fuel imports will plummet to 6.4 million tonnes – less than half of South Africa’s estimated 15.5 million tonne import requirement.
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group estimates the refinery could save the country $10 billion in foreign exchange this year alone.
“We’re witnessing the early fruits of deliberate policy reforms to revive our domestic refining capacity,” remarked a senior Nigerian energy official, referencing both the Dangote project and recently operational modular refineries.
Meanwhile, South Africa’s rising import dependence reflects systemic challenges in its refining sector. Nearly half of the country’s refining capacity remains offline, including the 180,000 bpd Sapref facility and Engen’s 120,000 bpd plant.
Transnet data shows imports now satisfy over 60% of South Africa’s fuel needs, with industry experts warning the situation may worsen without substantial infrastructure investment.
The contrasting trajectories highlight broader continental energy trends. Sub-Saharan Africa’s crude throughput surged 77.8% in 2024, largely on Dangote’s output, demonstrating how strategic investments can reshape regional supply dynamics.
However, analysts caution that Nigeria must sustain reform momentum to fully capitalize on its refining potential, while South Africa faces urgent decisions about revitalizing its crippled downstream sector.
