By John Ikani
US inflation hit its fastest pace in nearly four decades last year as pandemic-related supply and demand imbalances, along with stimulus intended to shore up the economy, pushed prices up at a 7% annual rate.
The Labor Department said Wednesday the consumer-price index—which measures what consumers pay for goods and services—rose 7% in December from the same month a year earlier, up from 6.8% in November. That was the fastest since 1982 and marked the third straight month in which inflation exceeded 6%.
COVID-19’s fast-spreading omicron variant likely intensified the price increases by spawning more worker absences in global delivery networks and slowing shipments, says Wells Fargo economist Sam Bullard. That more than erased any easing of demand and prices in COVID-19-sensitive industries like travel, Bullard says.
Price increases for shelter and used cars drove the surge. Used car and truck prices shot up 37% last year, with the average used vehicle now costing $29,000, according to Edmunds. Shelter costs rose 4.1%. Energy costs increased 29% last year but dropped in December, reflecting falling prices for gasoline and natural gas.
Excluding volatile food and energy items, so-called core prices rose 5.5% in 2021, a new 30-year high. On a monthly basis, overall consumer prices increased 0.5% in December while core prices advanced 0.6%.
Younger consumers have never experienced this sort of spiraling inflation. The last time prices rose so quickly was in the summer of 1982, as it was cooling off from the double-digit increases of the 1970s.
“We are probably at the peak of inflation increases, but that peak looks months-long until fundamental factors such as supply-chain disruptions and the chip shortage get fixed,” Robert Frick, Corporate Economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, said in a report.
“This is sapping consumers’ buying power, as real hourly wages have now dropped for nine straight months. And lower-income Americans are hurt most, given high prices in food and energy take up a bigger portion of their paychecks,” he added.
The Fed is expected to raise interest rates at least three times this year to cool rising inflation, although many economists predict four rate hikes.
The central bank expects its preferred of inflation gauge (which accounts for consumers switching to cheaper products) to fall to 2.6% this year, with the nation’s unemployment rate forecast to descend to 3.5%, according to projections from the Fed’s most recent meeting in December.
Economists expect overall inflation to ease in the coming months as gasoline and other energy prices continue to pull back and crude oil prices fall. But core inflation is expected to drift higher before edging down as the supply snags are ironed out.
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