By Lucy Adautin
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its forecast for Nigeria’s 2024 economic growth to 3.0 percent.
This represents one percentage point below the growth forecast of 3.1 percent made in October 2023.
The IMF announced the downgrade in its World Economic Outlook update in January 2024 released today.
The IMF also downgraded the forecast for Sub-Saharan 2024 economic growth to 3.2 percent from 3.4 percent earlier forecast in October last year.
In contrast, the IMF upgraded its forecast for global economic 2024 growth forecast to 3.1 percent from 2.9 percent earlier forecast in October last year.
The IMF stated, “Global growth is projected at 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the October 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) on account of greater-than-expected resilience in the United States and several large emerging market and developing economies, as well as fiscal support in China.”
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On its forecast for Sub Saharan Africa region, IMF said: “In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to rise from an estimated 3.3 percent in 2023 to 3.8 percent in 2024 and 4.1 percent in 2025, as the negative effects of earlier weather shocks subside and supply issues gradually improve.
“The downward revision for 2024 of 0.2 percentage points from October 2023 mainly reflects a weaker projection for South Africa on account of increasing logistical constraints, including those in the transportation sector, on economic activity.”
The Washington-based institution also announced in its quarterly World Economic Outlook on Tuesday that the global economy is projected to grow by 3.1 percent this year, an increase from the 2.9 percent forecasted in October. The IMF maintained its forecast for 2025 at 3.2 percent.
In addition, the IMF noted the risk of persistent inflation, which may necessitate central banks to maintain higher interest rates for extended periods.
The IMF emphasized on its concern regarding the possible fragmentation of global trade into competing blocs. It projected world trade growth of 3.3 percent in 2024 and 3.6 percent in 2025, which is below the historical average rate of 4.9 percent.
According to the IMF, nations implemented approximately 3,000 new trade restrictions last year, nearly three times the number recorded in 2019.
