By Enyichukwu Enemanna
One week before Kenya’s presidential election, an opinion poll has put former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, 77, ahead of his rival, William Ruto by six percentage points.
In the survey released Tuesday by the Ipsos group, 47% of respondents said they would vote for Odinga in next week’s presidential election.
Ruto, the country’s Deputy President, came second at 41%, while George Wajackoya and David Mwaure came a distant third and fourth respectively.
The poll indicates that about nine percent of voters were undecided.
Odinga’s age and Ruto’s integrity issues are their major drawbacks according to the polls. Ruto is accused of multiple corruption issues.
“Should Raila convert half of the undecided voters he will win this election first round. If Dr. William Ruto converts 100 percent of the undeclared vote, he will force a re-run,” said Samuel Muthoka, the East and Horn of Africa Director at Ipsos.
Under Kenya’s election system, a candidate needs to win 50% of the vote plus one to be declared the winner and avoid a runoff.
Another recent survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) found that Odinga was the most preferred candidate at 46.7%, while Ruto polled at 44.4%.
Muthoka says the election comes down to a few geographic areas, including major population centers in Mombasa, Nakuru Kiambu and Bungoma counties.
“We see that Raila Odinga has 18 counties that already have a voter preference above 55% for him and William Ruto has 17 counties where voter preference is 55% for him,” Muthoka said. “We think this could be clear win for the candidates. However, we have 11 counties which present as a battleground.”
At least 85% of more than 6,000 people sampled nationally said they were likely to vote in the August 9 election. Fifteen percent of voters said they are likely to stay away.
Employment and corruption prevention were highlighted as main issues among urban residents in the survey, while rural voters said they were most concerned about employment and education.
