A recent study by Climate Central warns that global heat exposure is intensifying due to climate change, with Africa suffering the most. The findings are based on the Climate Shift Index (CSI), a tool developed by the non-profit to track how climate change alters daily temperature patterns and contributes to rising heat levels.
The CSI scale, which ranges from 1 to 5, indicates how much more frequent certain temperatures have become due to climate change. A reading of 2 means a given temperature is now at least twice as likely as it would have been without human activity influencing the climate.
Published on March 19, the Climate Central report examined temperature data from 220 nations to determine where unusual heat events occurred and how they were shaped by climate change.
In half of the analysed countries—110 in total—residents experienced climate change-driven temperatures for at least one-third of the past three months, highlighting the widespread impact.
The study found that 1.8 billion people, or around 22 percent of the global population, encountered climate change-influenced heat daily between December 2024 and February 2025. This means that one in five people worldwide endured elevated temperatures throughout the season.
The most extreme instance was recorded on February 28, 2025, when 3 billion people—37 percent of the world’s population—were exposed to temperatures classified at CSI level 2 or above, showing a strong climate change influence.
Africa Faces the Harshest Conditions
More than a billion people in 36 African countries experienced persistent heat shaped by climate change, with at least 30 days falling into CSI level 2 or higher. In 12 of these nations, this period stretched between 70 and 87 days.
In Rwanda, nearly 14 million residents endured 87 days of climate-driven extreme heat. Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country, faced 74 such days over the season.
On average, people across the globe experienced six days of extreme heat between December 2024 and February 2025. The analysis attributes five of these directly to human-driven climate change. Without it, most people would have encountered just a single day of dangerous heat.
The study highlights an increase in ‘risky heat days’—when temperatures exceed the 90th percentile of local records from 1991 to 2020—raising serious health concerns.
Over the past three months, more than 394 million people worldwide endured at least 30 additional days of extreme heat due to climate change. A staggering 293 million, or 74 percent of them, were in Africa. This means three out of every four people facing prolonged extreme temperatures lived on the continent.
Eight of the ten nations most affected by prolonged heat exposure are in Africa, including Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Ghana, Tanzania, Côte d’Ivoire, Madagascar, and Cameroon.
From December 2024 to February 2025, ten countries in Africa and Oceania recorded the highest number of additional risky heat days. Comoros experienced the most in Africa with 52 extra days, followed by Liberia (45), Equatorial Guinea (42), Ghana (40), and Mauritius (36).
The report underscores Africa’s overwhelming vulnerability to climate change despite contributing minimally to global carbon emissions. As extreme heat events grow more frequent and severe, the urgency for stronger climate adaptation and resilience measures across the continent is greater than ever.
