By Enyichukwu Enemanna
Guinea’s interim leader, Mamady Doumbouya has been tipped to secure victory as a democratically elected President in the country’s December 28 presidential election, after key achievements including overhauling the country’s minerals sector and launching a huge iron ore project.
Doumbouya who had seized power in a coup four years ago once pledged not to contest in the Sunday’s election. But he is expected to cement his grip on power in the West African country after key challengers were disqualified.
A former special forces commander believed to be in his early 40s, Doumbouya gained broad support after he led the September 2021 coup against then-president Alpha Conde, who had sparked protests by seeking a controversial third term.
Unlike neighbouring Sahel states plagued by coups and jihadist insurgencies, Guinea has enjoyed relative stability under his leadership, alongside economic reforms and new mining sector investments, according to consultancy Signal Risk.
The country holds the world’s largest bauxite reserves and richest untapped iron ore deposit at Simandou, where a massive mining project was launched in November.
Under Doumbouya, Guinea has exerted more control over mining in order to boost state revenues.
Western powers face a dilemma: denouncing democratic backsliding could push Doumbouya closer to China and other rivals, said Benedict Manzin, lead Middle East and Africa analyst at risk consultancy Sibylline.
But a successful transition from coup leader to civilian president could embolden other militaries in the region, he said.
“Doumbouya … seized power, largely ignored (West African bloc) ECOWAS and domestic demands to rapidly transition back to civilian rule… (then) secured his own election… while the international community largely overlooked how he got to power in the first place,” Manzin said.
In 2022, his government proposed a two-year transition to elections, but missed that deadline. Doumbouya has since taken steps to shore up support, Manzin said.
Civil society critics accuse his government of banning protests, curbing press freedom and restricting opposition activity.
He has also pardoned former coup leader Moussa Dadis Camara, who was convicted over a 2009 stadium massacre and retains support in the populous Guinee Forestiere region. Under Doumbouya, the Supreme Court faced pressure to bar opposition candidates, Manzin said.
