Nigeria’s daily crude oil yield has once more slipped under the ceiling assigned by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Fresh numbers from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission indicate that the nation pumped out about 1.47 million barrels per day in February, down from a solid 1.54 million barrels daily in January.
OPEC has capped Nigeria’s output at 1.5 million barrels per day. The February slump translates to a daily shortfall of 70,000 barrels, adding up to roughly 2.1 million litres lost across the month.
Back in January, Nigeria pushed past its OPEC allowance by over 30,000 barrels each day, winning cheers from oil sector insiders who felt the government and its partners were zeroed in on hitting a lofty 2.06 million barrels per day goal.
However, the latest report from the NUPRC reveals that the January success has faded, with the country dropping 70,000 barrels daily between the two months.
On a similar note, the total haul of crude oil and condensate shrank from 1.78 million barrels per day in January to 1.67 million in February.
“The NUPRC remarked, ‘Lowest and peak production in February were 1.60 million bopd and 1.76 million bopd respectively. The daily average production in February was 1,671,953 barrels per day, comprising both crude oil (1,465,006 bopd) and condensate (206,948 bopd). The average crude oil production was 98 per cent of OPEC quota (1.5 mbpd).’”
For years—2022, 2023, and 2024—Nigeria couldn’t match the crude oil targets OPEC laid out. Kicking off 2025, though, the nation saw a bright spot, lifting production from 1.4 million barrels daily in December 2024 to 1.5 million in January.
Stolen crude and wrecked pipelines have long dragged the country down, stopping it from meeting OPEC’s expectations time and again.
Even so, Heineken Lokpobiri, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), is upbeat, betting Nigeria can climb to 3 million barrels per day in 2025. He’s banking on a full-throttle strategy echoing U.S. President Donald Trump’s ‘Drill, baby drill’ call to action.
Lokpobiri added that the 3 million barrel mark would blend crude and condensate, promising the nation could scale up without stepping on OPEC’s toes.
