Nigeria’s President, Bola Tinubu, who is considered by many in his home country as old, frail and sickly, has surprised critics by attempting to flex muscles as the Chairman of ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government. In his public show of reinstating Nigeria as the big brother of Africa, Tinubu at an extraordinary ECOWAS Summit in Abuja few days ago, issued a seven-day ultimatum to the military junta in Niger to revert to the status quo or risk dire consequences, including a possible military action and economic sanctions.
Barely 24 hours after his warning, the Nigerian Armed Forces and those of the West African Region have been instructed to be on Red Alert, just in case there is a need to invade Niger to restore order in the aftermath of the bloodless coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.
Nigeria’s Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa had on Wednesday, August 3, 2023 led a meeting of Chiefs of Defence Staff from 15 ECOWAS countries at the Nigerian Defence Headquarters, Abuja, the Nigerian capital. While Defence Chiefs of Nigeria, Benin, Ghana, Togo, Sierra Leone, Liberia, The Gambia, Cote D’Ivoire, Cape Verde, and Senegal were present, those from Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, and Guinea Bissau were conspicuously absent, a development indicating the countries’ opposition to ECOWAS’ stance on the coup in Niger.
Added to this, Nigeria has cut off its electricity supply to Niger in commencement of ECOWAS sanctions.
But there is a wide gap of division. The military juntas of Mali and Burkina Faso have warned Tinubu and co that any deployment of external military presence into Niger would be considered a territorial threat to them all. While the UK through its Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, has expressed its support on the position of the ECOWAS bloc on the military coup in Niger Republic, a guilty Russia has called more a diplomatic approach, an option it did not wisely explore against Ukraine.
Nigeria’s Military Already Overstretched
In February this year, former Nigerian Minister of Defence, Major General Bashir Magashi (rtd) admitted that the Nigerian Armed Forces are already overburdened with numerous security challenges confronting the nation. He also complained of inadequate manpower. Fighting Boko Haram in the North East, Armed Banditry and Kidnapping in the North West and North Central, Oil Theft in the South South, Secessionist Threat in the South East, Cultism and other social vices in the South West has overstretched the fourth best military in Africa.
“Adequate manpower is paramount for any military force to perform effectively. As of 2022, Nigeria with an estimated population of about 220 million people has a total military strength of about 223,000 personnel. This gives a ratio of military personnel to a population of approximately 11,000. This is lower than those of Nigeria’s neighbours except Niger (Republic),” the Defence Minister lamented.
Aside the reality that Nigeria’s Armed Forces is already overstretched, there is more to do back home for Tinubu. The economic hardship triggered by the removal of fuel subsidy urgently needs to be augmented with salvaging palliatives, hence, there is no need to waste monies on prosecuting a war in Niger. Tinubu’s critics have suggested that the ‘Jagaban’ has no business being ECOWAS Chairman, especially as he is still new as President, and that there is still election litigation hanging on his head. They have argued that ECOWAS handed Tinubu the chair because of the financial benefits the bloc would get from the ever-fat Nigerian purse.
In January this year, international military ranking research organization – Global Fire Power (GFP) ranked the Nigerian Army 36 of 145 out of the countries considered for the annual GFP review. According to the ranking, Nigeria holds a Power Index Score of 0.5587 (a score of 0.0000 is considered ‘perfect’).
Economic Cost Of War
Beyond his urge to show off, Tinubu should not be cajoled by ECOWAS member states into starting a war in Niger. He must reconsider more strategic non-kinetic measures to solve the problem. If the military intervention in Niger comes to be, Nigeria will be the biggest losers. As the big brother, Nigeria will be expected to commit more resources and men. Other bloc members know this, and may want to take advantage of it. Heritage Times HT recalls that in 1990 Nigeria deployed over 5,000 (84%) of the 6,000 joint troops that were sent to Liberia during the first civil war, which began in 1989. Between 1991, 1992 and 1993, when the ECOMOG Standing troops rose to 12,000, Nigeria alone contributed 10,000 men (83%).
According to the Watson Institute of International and Public Affairs, the 2022 Fiscal Report of the United States showed that the government has spent and obligated $8 trillion dollars on the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and elsewhere. “This figure includes: direct Congressional war appropriations; war-related increases to the Pentagon base budget; veterans care and disability; increases in the homeland security budget; interest payments on direct war borrowing; foreign assistance spending; and estimated future obligations for veterans’ care”.
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), a German research institute, recorded that Russia’s Vladimir Putin has pledged more than 116 billion pounds ($140bn) for his war in Ukraine in 2023 alone, a sum that nearly totals Russia’s defence and security budget for 2023 which stands at $155bn.
Nigeria’s Past Expenditure On Peace Keeping Missions
Immediate-past Chief of Defence Staff, Gen. Lucky Irabor (rtd) while speaking last year at the 75th-year celebration of the United Nations peacekeeping operations, disclosed that Nigeria has significantly contributed to 41 peacekeeping operations worldwide. He said in Liberia alone, the Nigerian government spent $8bn to restore peace during the country’s civil wars. The Defence Chief noted that over 200,000 Nigerian troops have served in UN peacekeeping missions worldwide.
The Liberian civil wars (1990 & 1999) are regarded as Africa’s bloodiest. But it was a period that Nigeria shone as the big brother of Africa. Nigeria heavily deployed thousands of troops, on several occasions, to Monrovia, the capital and other cities in the West African State, to help restore peace, and order. During the protracted conflict, children soldiers were used in battles between armed groups. As reported, the wars also recorded one of the worst forms of human rights violations. By the end of the final war, more than 250,000 people had been killed and thousands displaced.
Like Liberia, the Nigerian Armed Forces were sent to Sierra Leone restore order after an elected civilian government was ousted in a military coup. Specifically on May 25, 1997, the elected civilian government of Ahmed Tejan Kabbah which had been in office for just one year, was overthrown in a military coup led by Major Johnny Paul Koroma, following his escape from prison, where he had been held following an earlier attempted coup in September 1996.
Just as Tinubu did few days ago, the Nigerian government at the time led by late Gen Sani Abacha, who himself grabbed power by coup, had delivered an ultimatum to the coup leaders, who had formed themselves into an Armed Forces Revolutionary Council (AFRC), to leave power and restore the elected president. Following a breakdown of negotiations for the peaceful restoration of the Kabbah government led by the Nigerian and British high commissioners, Nigerian naval vessels stationed off Freetown began shelling the capital, a war was started.
The Nigerian ECOWAS contingent at the Freetown Airport were supported by Guinean troops already based in Freetown, while the Ghanaian contingent force pulled back, stating that they preferred a non-kinetic solution.
Freetown was heavily bombarded, and several hundred were reported killed in initial fighting. Despite their superior firepower, the Nigerian Forces were eventually forced to withdraw, with the AFRC claiming that 300 Nigerian troops were taken hostage, but later released.
As a follow up, Nigerian Foreign Minister Tom Ikimi proceeded on a tour of West African states to consult on action in Sierra Leone. He was greeted with resentment of Nigeria’s decision to intervene without any official mandate from regional heads of state. Several West African leaders and commentators chided Nigeria for the operation. Late South African President, Nelson Mandela led the call for possible sanctions against Nigeria, just as Abass Bundu, a former Executive Secretary of ECOWAS, described the June 2, 1997 bombardment of Freetown as “totally unwarranted and unjustified”. Similarly, Blaise Compaore President of Burkina Faso at the time, stated in an interview with Radio France International that: “The agreements between the states of West Africa do not authorize military intervention to restore a regime or organize a counter-coup. This type of operation could cause further tragedies for the Sierra Leone people”.
President of the Nigeria in Diaspora Organization (NIDO) Namibia chapter, Professor Edosa Omoregie, said Nigeria has spent $82 million in peacekeeping operations, and has lost about 2000 soldiers, and more than $10 billion in the same process in the last five decades.
Written by Emmanuel Nduka
